Here's part two of last week's post on projections.
This uses the 2009 Marcel's to project Brewers pitching, once again using only players the Brewers have currently locked down. It's possible that I may have missed somebody that would likely make the roster if the season started today, so please point that out if I missed it.
Notes: I required 1458 (162 g * 9 IP/g) as the total number of IP required overall.
I required 863.67 IP by starters (~5.33 IP/g) and 594.33 IP by relievers (~3.67 IP/g).
FIP = (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K)/IP + 3.33 (difference between avg NL FIP and avg NL ERA)
Again, 10.5 R/Win.
AVG ERA = AVG FIP = 4.41
Starters = Gallardo, Capuano, McClung, Suppan, Bush
Relievers = Others
And without further ado, the numbers.
|Gallardo/Capuano 160 IP each||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||-||-|
|+McClung 160 IP|
|+FREE AGENT SIGNINGS||$ (millions)||M$/FIPWAR|
|Swindle (Projections from CAIRO)||49||2.79||4||45||8||3.02||7.57||8.82||0.72||0.84||0.4||.147|
Well, this doesn't look very good for Brewers fans. Using the pure mIP numbers from the Marcel's, the Brewers staff looks about 6.2 wins below average using FIP numbers (which I prefer, because I already ran fielding projections, and because FIP is more talent-based) and 4.5 below average using ERA. However, let's be optimistic and assume we can get starter-type innings out of Capuano, McClung, and Gallardo. With a minimal assumption of 160 innings for each of those pitchers, we're looking a little better, at -3 wins and -1 wins for FIP and ERA respectively.
Clearly, Melvin needs to go out there and get pitching, both in the bullpen and in the rotation. Anything to get experienced, non-replacement innings will greatly help this team. If the offense performs up to par, another 5 wins out of the pitching (which comes out to about 25 million on the free agent market, less than that if you can find bargains) would put this team at +7.5 WAA, or an 89 win team. If the team is willing to spend 40 or 50 million, we could be looking at a +12.5 WAA, or 93+ win team.
With the team we have right now, I'm not optimistic. But if the front office can find a few diamonds in the rough in the FA pool and minor leagues, as well as make a splash in the big name free agent market, the Brewers could very well be a contender again.