Updating projection tables as free agents get signed.

Like the message says, I'll be updating the projection tables as free agents are signed.

This will also give us a good idea of projected dollars/win, which could be interesting as the offseason goes on.

UPDATE: 11/27/08
The Swindle signing moves the Brewers pitching to -1.97 WAA.
Bourgeois doesn't appear to be a player who will receive a roster spot (he's right around replacement level anyway) so he won't be put on my list unless he does make the roster.

CURRENT PROJECTION: Pitchers -1.97|Position Players +5.63|Total +3.66|ExpW-L 84.66 - 77.33

Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/11/25/670594/brewers-sign-r-j-swindle

Says everything I would say about this and more.

And better.

Pitching Projections

Here's part two of last week's post on projections.

This uses the 2009 Marcel's to project Brewers pitching, once again using only players the Brewers have currently locked down. It's possible that I may have missed somebody that would likely make the roster if the season started today, so please point that out if I missed it.

Notes: I required 1458 (162 g * 9 IP/g) as the total number of IP required overall.
I required 863.67 IP by starters (~5.33 IP/g) and 594.33 IP by relievers (~3.67 IP/g).

FIP = (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K)/IP + 3.33 (difference between avg NL FIP and avg NL ERA)

Again, 10.5 R/Win.

AVG ERA = AVG FIP = 4.41

Starters = Gallardo, Capuano, McClung, Suppan, Bush
Relievers = Others

And without further ado, the numbers.

nameLast	IP	ERA	HR	K	BB	FIP	FIPRAA	ERARAA	FIPWAA	ERAWAA
Gallardo	79	3.65	7	70	28	3.77	5.59	6.67	0.53	0.64
Capuano	72	4.5	9	60	24	4.29	0.97	-0.72	0.09	-0.07
Stetter	38	4.03	4	33	18	4.38	0.12	1.6	0.01	0.15
Villanueva	96	4.03	13	82	34	4.44	-0.37	4.05	-0.04	0.39
Bush	169	4.31	23	118	45	4.5	-1.72	1.88	-0.16	0.18
McClung	89	4.35	9	70	44	4.55	-1.43	0.59	-0.14	0.06
DiFelice	35	4.37	5	28	12	4.62	-0.8	0.16	-0.08	0.02
Dillard	32	4.22	4	23	12	4.64	-0.83	0.68	-0.08	0.06
Coffey	43	4.81	6	33	16	4.73	-1.51	-1.91	-0.14	-0.18
Riske	53	4.25	7	39	23	4.88	-2.75	0.94	-0.26	0.09
Suppan	169	4.85	21	98	63	4.9	-9.28	-8.26	-0.88	-0.79
Replacement SP	285.33	5.5	-	-	-	5.5	-34.56	-34.56	-3.29	-3.29
Replacement RP	297.67	5	-	-	-	5	-19.51	-19.51	-1.86	-1.86
TOTALS	1458	-	-	-	-	-	-66.07	-48.39	-6.29	-4.61
Gallardo/Capuano 160 IP each	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Gallardo	160	3.65	14.18	141.77	56.71	3.77	11.32	13.51	1.08	1.29
Capuano	160	4.5	18.23	121.52	48.61	4.29	1.97	-1.46	0.19	-0.14
Replacement SP	116.33	5.5				5.5	-14.09	-14.09	-1.34	-1.34
Replacement RP	297.67	5	-	-	-	5	-19.51	-19.51	-1.86	-1.86
TOTALS	1458	-	-	-	-	-	-38.87	-21.82	-3.7	-2.08
+McClung 160 IP
McClung	160	4.35	16.18	125.84	79.1	4.55	-2.57	1.07	-0.25	0.1
Replacement SP	45.33	5.5	-	-	-	5.5	-5.49	-5.49	-0.52	-0.52
Replacement RP	297.67	5	-	-	-	5	-19.51	-19.51	-1.86	-1.86
TOTALS	1458	-	-	-	-	-	-31.42	-12.74	-2.99	-1.21
+FREE AGENT SIGNINGS											$ (millions)	M$/FIPWAR
Swindle (Projections from CAIRO)	49	2.79	4	45	8	3.02	7.57	8.82	0.72	0.84	0.4	.147
Replacement SP	45.33	5.5	-	-	-	5.5	-5.49	-5.49	-0.52	-0.52
Replacement RP	248.67	5	-	-	-	5	-16.3	-16.3	-1.55	-0.15
TOTALS	1458	-	-	-	-	-	-20.63	-0.72	-1.97	1.34	0.4	0.147

Well, this doesn't look very good for Brewers fans. Using the pure mIP numbers from the Marcel's, the Brewers staff looks about 6.2 wins below average using FIP numbers (which I prefer, because I already ran fielding projections, and because FIP is more talent-based) and 4.5 below average using ERA. However, let's be optimistic and assume we can get starter-type innings out of Capuano, McClung, and Gallardo. With a minimal assumption of 160 innings for each of those pitchers, we're looking a little better, at -3 wins and -1 wins for FIP and ERA respectively.

Clearly, Melvin needs to go out there and get pitching, both in the bullpen and in the rotation. Anything to get experienced, non-replacement innings will greatly help this team. If the offense performs up to par, another 5 wins out of the pitching (which comes out to about 25 million on the free agent market, less than that if you can find bargains) would put this team at +7.5 WAA, or an 89 win team. If the team is willing to spend 40 or 50 million, we could be looking at a +12.5 WAA, or 93+ win team.

With the team we have right now, I'm not optimistic. But if the front office can find a few diamonds in the rough in the FA pool and minor leagues, as well as make a splash in the big name free agent market, the Brewers could very well be a contender again.

A Bare Bones Projection Of Brewers Hitters In 2009

The 2009 Marcel's are out, and I coupled them with Sean Smith's 2009 defensive projections to make a bare bones projection of Brewers hitters for the 09 season.

This assumes no signings of anybody at all, so obviously this is only to be seen as a starting point, and also to see where the Brewers holes are.

Important notes: I required each position to receive 700 plate appearances between all players and replacements.

Thus, 700/162 = 4.33 = PA/G, which is how I found expected games.

Rel = Reliability, which is based on the number of plate appearances Marcel had to work with. That's why it's low for players like Gamel and Gwynn and high for players like Cameron and Hart.

xG = Expected games.

The m before some columns represents the fact that they're from the Marcel projections.

Obviously this isn't perfect but like I said, this is a very simple projection.

EDIT: I had a formatting error in my spreadsheet, which rounded down all the wOBA values, which lowered both each player's wOBA AND the average wOBA. This results in a slightly lower WAA, but not a whole lot of difference overall.

PLAYER	POS	REL.	mPA	wOBA	RAA	WAA	WAR	xG	G/POS	DefRAA	PosAdj	DefWAA	TotalWAA
Gwynn, Tony	OF	0.46	238	0.306	-4.14	-0.39	0.24	55.09	39 CF 13 RF	-2.95	0.8	-0.2	-0.6
Gamel, Mat	3B	0.01	201	0.344	3.15	0.3	0.84	46.53	46 3B	0	0	0	0.3
Nelson ,Brad	1B	0.03	204	0.338	2.13	0.2	0.75	47.22	20 1B 27 PH	0	-2.22	-0.21	-0.01
Rivera ,Mike	C	0.42	236	0.329	0.62	0.06	0.69	54.63	36 C 18 PH	0	1.67	0.16	0.22
Hall, Bill	3B	0.84	474	0.325	-0.41	-0.04	1.22	109.72	110 3B	-0.68	0	-0.06	-0.1
Cameron, Mike	CF	0.85	519	0.333	3.16	0.3	1.68	120.14	120 CF	2.24	3.46	0.54	0.84
Weeks, Rickie	2B	0.83	531	0.343	7.85	0.75	2.16	122.92	122 2B	-6.84	0	-0.65	0.1
Kendall, Jason	C	0.85	545	0.295	-14.69	-1.4	0.05	126.16	126 C	10	7.25	1.64	0.24
Hardy, J.J.	SS	0.84	578	0.344	9.05	0.86	2.4	133.8	134 SS	0.83	3.86	0.45	1.31
Fielder, Prince	1B	0.87	615	0.382	29.95	2.85	4.49	142.36	142 1B	-7.09	-8.21	-1.46	1.39
Braun, Ryan	LF	0.81	581	0.384	29.3	2.79	4.34	134.49	134 LF	1.67	-3.86	-0.21	2.58
Hart, Corey	RF	0.84	585	0.345	9.67	0.92	2.48	135.42	135 RF	1.68	-3.89	-0.21	0.71
Replacement	C	-	0	-	-	0	0	-	0 C	0	0	0	0
Replacement	1B	-	0	-	-	0	0	-	0 C	0	0	0	0
Replacement	2B	-	169	-	-	-0.45	0	-	40 2B	0	0	0	-0.45
Replacement	3B	-	25	-	-	-0.07	0	-	6 3B	0	0	0	-0.07
Replacement	SS	-	122	-	-	-0.33	0	-	28 SS	0	0.86	0.08	-0.24
Replacement	LF	-	119	-	-	-0.32	0	-	28 LF	0	-0.86	-0.08	-0.4
Replacement	CF	-	0	-	-	0	0	-	0 CF	0	0	0	0
Replacement	RF	-	58	-	-	-0.15	0	-	14 RF	0	-0.43	-0.04	-0.2
Totals	-	-	-	-	-	5.89	21.35	-	162 ALL	-1.14	-1.57	-0.26	5.63
												'

No giant surprises here. The Brewer position players project as between 5 and 6 wins above average, with this being a conservative estimate due to Marcel's conservative estimates of playing time. The Brewer offense is basically back in full force, although clearly a backup outfielder or 2 would be useful over the off-season (Gwynn really doesn't seem to be worth much outside of a pinch-runner, as his outfield defense is far below average in center and average in the corners). Pitching projections will come in the next few days, and that's where it should get interesting.

What have the Brewers lost in Salomon Torres?

At the surface, it seems like the Brewers have lost quite a bit. Torres saved 28 games for the Brewers with a 3.49 ERA and gave at least a little bit of stabilization to the later innings (although not a whole lot, as any Brewer fan can attest to) after the failure of the Eric Gagne Project. Torres retired last week, and this leaves the Brewer bullpen slightly naked at the back end. But really, did Torres have that great of a season? How many runs did he really save for the Brewers?

NOTE: Torres retired last week, but the Brewers picked up his '09 option, so if Torres decides to come back, he will remain a Brewer.



Let's take a look at a stat called tRA, from Statcorner.com (check their glossary for this and more great stats) . tRA is a stat that is based on purely things that pitchers can control (walks, strikeouts, home run rates, etc., things that the defense doesn't effect) that is then normalized to the ERA scale.

Torres pitched 77.3 innings with a 4.63 tRA this year. Torres' controllable skills show that he was quite lucky to post such a high ERA. Much of this can be attributed to the Brewers defense, which was very good and by some metrics the best in the NL.

Let's convert this tRA and IP score into a number of runs saved above a replacement reliever (basically, any scrub from AAA, like, say Tim Dillard, who had a 5.99 tRA in his 14 IP with the Brewers this season). The formula for finding total runs saved above replacement is as follows:

EDIT: Turns out I was using the wrong value here. Should be 5.00 because we're looking at relievers.

(5.00 - (tRA))*IP/9.

Torres saved 3.22 runs above replacement (RAR) He definitely helped the bullpen. But let's compare him to some other relievers. Some other Brewers, some FAs, and some closers from around the league.

A couple Brewers:
Brian Shouse: 3.99 RAR
Carlos Villanueva (only as a RP): 11.53
(just for laughs)
Eric Gagne: -9.65 (and somehow, this guy is a type B free agent)

A few FA closers:
Francisco Rodriguez: 10.45
Brian Fuentes: 21.11
Kerry Wood: 20.97

And some other FAs, that some might classify as "F.A.T"
This doesn't mean Prince Fielder fat, but Freely Available Talent. Some of this depends on "Freely," because some of these guys are type B free agents, but either way, you might be able to get similar production to top-tier guys like K-Rod for far, far less money.

Jeremy Affeldt: 11.44 (previous contract 3M/yr)
Will Ohman: 8.94 (previous contract: 1.8M/yr)

And this guy is still the best reliever in baseball, even though everybody seems to have forgotten:

Mariano Rivera: 30.26

However, a big part of relieving has been ignored in this analysis. Closers, such as K-Rod and Wood and Fuentes pitch in more important situations, on average, than 6th or 7th inning guys like Villanueva and Ohman. So let's take that into account. Fangraphs keeps track of pLI, or the average leverage index for each reliever. Let's multiply the runs saved above average by pLI in order to take a look at a little truer number of runs saved. Also, let's look at their runs saved multiplied by 1.93, the average closer pLI (with closer defined as any reliever with 20+ saves in 2008).

For some reason, I can't seem to get rid of all these spaces so you'll have to scroll down a bit for the table.

EDIT: Fixed it!

PITCHER	tRA	IP	RSAR	pLI	RSAR*pLI	RSAR*1.93	WAR (normal)	WAR (pLI)	WAR (1.93)
Torres	4.63	78.3	3.22	2	6.44	6.21	0.32	0.64	0.62
Shouse	4.3	51.3	3.99	1.08	4.31	7.7	0.4	0.43	0.77
Villanueva	3.25	59.3	11.53	1.09	12.57	22.25	1.15	1.26	2.23
Gagne	6.9	45.7	-9.65	1.72	-16.59	-18.62	-0.96	-1.66	-1.86
Rodriguez	3.59	66.7	10.45	2.54	26.54	20.17	1.04	2.65	2.02
Fuentes	1.97	62.7	21.11	2.01	42.43	40.74	2.11	4.24	4.07
Wood	2.11	65.3	20.97	1.99	41.73	40.47	2.1	4.17	4.05
Affeldt	3.68	78	11.44	0.56	6.41	22.08	1.14	0.64	2.21
Ohman	3.63	58.7	8.94	0.88	7.86	17.25	0.89	0.79	1.72
Rivera	1.11	70	30.26	1.92	58.09	58.39	3.03	5.81	5.84

This shows us some pretty interesting things. First of all, Mariano Rivera is amazing. 5.84 wins above replacement at closer. Second of all, if guys like Jeremy Affeldt or Carlos Villanueva could maintain the type of raw production they get in the roles they have now, they could be very effective closers, at the level of a guy like Francisco Rodriguez.

Of course, this has to be taken with a grain of salt. We don't know if these players will thrive if thrust into a closer role, and it's possible that in these lower leverage situations that they aren't facing the same quality of hitters that closers are. But it does tell us that managers CAN use them better than they are being used, and that you don't necessarily have to spend 10 million dollars to get a guy that's a couple wins above replacement (or, in the Brewers case, -.882 WAR), and that Brewers GM Doug Melvin may have plenty of options available to bolster the bullpen with besides expensive guys like Wood and Fuentes.

Brewers Exercise Option on CF Cameron

GM Doug Melvin and crew finally exercised the 10M club option on Mike Cameron. The Brewers CF, in limited action due to a 25-game stimulant-related suspension (120 G, 508 PA), Cameron put up a .243/.331/.477 slash line, along with 25 HRs and 70 RBIs. These numbers (especially the .243 avg) may lead many casual fans to wonder why a small market team like the Brewers would be willing to spend 10 million dollars on a hitter of this caliber.

First off, Cameron's numbers where quite good among CFs this year. Cameron's .809 OPS ranked 30th among qualifying OFs, and when the sample is reduced to CFs, it ranks 7th among OF (and 3rd among NL CFs), only 1 point behind Torii Hunter's .810 OPS. However, Cameron's OPS is slightly misleading, because of his low OBP, he's not quite worth as much offensively as his OPS would suggest. For a better look, Cameron's WPA/LI this year was 1.42, meaning that Cameron, in reduced time, was still worth 1.42 wins above the average ML hitter.

However, anybody who watched the Brewers play over the course of the season knows that Cameron is also a fine defensive player, and we cannot ignore this contribution of the player. This is a major concern for the Brewers, who are losing 1 if not 2 aces this year in Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia. This means that the Brewers will have to rely on solid gloves (even moreso than last season, where they lead the NL in +/-) and not ace pitching in order to keep a solid run prevention.

Let's take a look at Justin's TotalValue Stats, a set of stats that uses Linear Weights for offense and Zone Ratings on defense to determine the total number of runs above (or below) replacement a player was over the 2008 season. Justin has Cameron at 26 runs above replacement (+23 runs offensively, +3 runs defensively), which, using a crude 10 runs = 1 win scale, puts Cameron at 2.6 wins above replacement. The current free agent market has a +1 win player going for somewhere in the range of 4.5 to 5 million dollars/year.

Even if we assume some sort of decline for Cameron (who will be 36 next year), the fact that he will likely accrue 100 more plate appearances and 20 more games in CF will be of enough value to the Brewers that it is fair to expect a similar performance next year. Cameron's BABIP was slightly lower than his career average (.300 vs .307), so no major regression either way should be expected there. Cameron's HR/FB rate was way up this year, 18.9% compared to 13.8%. While Cameron's career HR/FB is lowered by spending much of his career in pitcher's parks like Petco Park and Safeco Field, Miller Park also had a low HR park factor this year as well, so regression can be expected for his HR/FB rate.

Basically, the Brewers can expect to have a decent, +1.5 to +2.5 win hitter combined with a +.5 to +1.5 win outfielder, which is a great bargain at 10 million dollars for only one year. Also, if Cameron performs similarly to last year, he may reach the Type A free agent tier, netting the Brewers more draft picks on top of the picks they'll get if/when Sabathia, Sheets (both type A), Shouse, Gagne, and Torres (all type B) leave this year. Melvin made a genius deal last year, and I'm surprised it took the Brewers this long to realize that it will bring nothing but good things to the club once again.

From MLB.com: Nationals targeting slugger to clean up

They may have gone so far as to put a classified ad in the Washington Post!