A Bare Bones Projection Of Brewers Hitters In 2009

The 2009 Marcel's are out, and I coupled them with Sean Smith's 2009 defensive projections to make a bare bones projection of Brewers hitters for the 09 season.

This assumes no signings of anybody at all, so obviously this is only to be seen as a starting point, and also to see where the Brewers holes are.

Important notes: I required each position to receive 700 plate appearances between all players and replacements.

Thus, 700/162 = 4.33 = PA/G, which is how I found expected games.

Rel = Reliability, which is based on the number of plate appearances Marcel had to work with. That's why it's low for players like Gamel and Gwynn and high for players like Cameron and Hart.

xG = Expected games.

The m before some columns represents the fact that they're from the Marcel projections.

Obviously this isn't perfect but like I said, this is a very simple projection.

EDIT: I had a formatting error in my spreadsheet, which rounded down all the wOBA values, which lowered both each player's wOBA AND the average wOBA. This results in a slightly lower WAA, but not a whole lot of difference overall.

PLAYER	POS	REL.	mPA	wOBA	RAA	WAA	WAR	xG	G/POS	DefRAA	PosAdj	DefWAA	TotalWAA
Gwynn, Tony	OF	0.46	238	0.306	-4.14	-0.39	0.24	55.09	39 CF 13 RF	-2.95	0.8	-0.2	-0.6
Gamel, Mat	3B	0.01	201	0.344	3.15	0.3	0.84	46.53	46 3B	0	0	0	0.3
Nelson ,Brad	1B	0.03	204	0.338	2.13	0.2	0.75	47.22	20 1B 27 PH	0	-2.22	-0.21	-0.01
Rivera ,Mike	C	0.42	236	0.329	0.62	0.06	0.69	54.63	36 C 18 PH	0	1.67	0.16	0.22
Hall, Bill	3B	0.84	474	0.325	-0.41	-0.04	1.22	109.72	110 3B	-0.68	0	-0.06	-0.1
Cameron, Mike	CF	0.85	519	0.333	3.16	0.3	1.68	120.14	120 CF	2.24	3.46	0.54	0.84
Weeks, Rickie	2B	0.83	531	0.343	7.85	0.75	2.16	122.92	122 2B	-6.84	0	-0.65	0.1
Kendall, Jason	C	0.85	545	0.295	-14.69	-1.4	0.05	126.16	126 C	10	7.25	1.64	0.24
Hardy, J.J.	SS	0.84	578	0.344	9.05	0.86	2.4	133.8	134 SS	0.83	3.86	0.45	1.31
Fielder, Prince	1B	0.87	615	0.382	29.95	2.85	4.49	142.36	142 1B	-7.09	-8.21	-1.46	1.39
Braun, Ryan	LF	0.81	581	0.384	29.3	2.79	4.34	134.49	134 LF	1.67	-3.86	-0.21	2.58
Hart, Corey	RF	0.84	585	0.345	9.67	0.92	2.48	135.42	135 RF	1.68	-3.89	-0.21	0.71
Replacement	C	-	0	-	-	0	0	-	0 C	0	0	0	0
Replacement	1B	-	0	-	-	0	0	-	0 C	0	0	0	0
Replacement	2B	-	169	-	-	-0.45	0	-	40 2B	0	0	0	-0.45
Replacement	3B	-	25	-	-	-0.07	0	-	6 3B	0	0	0	-0.07
Replacement	SS	-	122	-	-	-0.33	0	-	28 SS	0	0.86	0.08	-0.24
Replacement	LF	-	119	-	-	-0.32	0	-	28 LF	0	-0.86	-0.08	-0.4
Replacement	CF	-	0	-	-	0	0	-	0 CF	0	0	0	0
Replacement	RF	-	58	-	-	-0.15	0	-	14 RF	0	-0.43	-0.04	-0.2
Totals	-	-	-	-	-	5.89	21.35	-	162 ALL	-1.14	-1.57	-0.26	5.63
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No giant surprises here. The Brewer position players project as between 5 and 6 wins above average, with this being a conservative estimate due to Marcel's conservative estimates of playing time. The Brewer offense is basically back in full force, although clearly a backup outfielder or 2 would be useful over the off-season (Gwynn really doesn't seem to be worth much outside of a pinch-runner, as his outfield defense is far below average in center and average in the corners). Pitching projections will come in the next few days, and that's where it should get interesting.