Pitching Projections

Here's part two of last week's post on projections.

This uses the 2009 Marcel's to project Brewers pitching, once again using only players the Brewers have currently locked down. It's possible that I may have missed somebody that would likely make the roster if the season started today, so please point that out if I missed it.

Notes: I required 1458 (162 g * 9 IP/g) as the total number of IP required overall.
I required 863.67 IP by starters (~5.33 IP/g) and 594.33 IP by relievers (~3.67 IP/g).

FIP = (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K)/IP + 3.33 (difference between avg NL FIP and avg NL ERA)

Again, 10.5 R/Win.

AVG ERA = AVG FIP = 4.41

Starters = Gallardo, Capuano, McClung, Suppan, Bush
Relievers = Others

And without further ado, the numbers.

nameLast	IP	ERA	HR	K	BB	FIP	FIPRAA	ERARAA	FIPWAA	ERAWAA
Gallardo	79	3.65	7	70	28	3.77	5.59	6.67	0.53	0.64
Capuano	72	4.5	9	60	24	4.29	0.97	-0.72	0.09	-0.07
Stetter	38	4.03	4	33	18	4.38	0.12	1.6	0.01	0.15
Villanueva	96	4.03	13	82	34	4.44	-0.37	4.05	-0.04	0.39
Bush	169	4.31	23	118	45	4.5	-1.72	1.88	-0.16	0.18
McClung	89	4.35	9	70	44	4.55	-1.43	0.59	-0.14	0.06
DiFelice	35	4.37	5	28	12	4.62	-0.8	0.16	-0.08	0.02
Dillard	32	4.22	4	23	12	4.64	-0.83	0.68	-0.08	0.06
Coffey	43	4.81	6	33	16	4.73	-1.51	-1.91	-0.14	-0.18
Riske	53	4.25	7	39	23	4.88	-2.75	0.94	-0.26	0.09
Suppan	169	4.85	21	98	63	4.9	-9.28	-8.26	-0.88	-0.79
Replacement SP	285.33	5.5	-	-	-	5.5	-34.56	-34.56	-3.29	-3.29
Replacement RP	297.67	5	-	-	-	5	-19.51	-19.51	-1.86	-1.86
TOTALS	1458	-	-	-	-	-	-66.07	-48.39	-6.29	-4.61
Gallardo/Capuano 160 IP each	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Gallardo	160	3.65	14.18	141.77	56.71	3.77	11.32	13.51	1.08	1.29
Capuano	160	4.5	18.23	121.52	48.61	4.29	1.97	-1.46	0.19	-0.14
Replacement SP	116.33	5.5				5.5	-14.09	-14.09	-1.34	-1.34
Replacement RP	297.67	5	-	-	-	5	-19.51	-19.51	-1.86	-1.86
TOTALS	1458	-	-	-	-	-	-38.87	-21.82	-3.7	-2.08
+McClung 160 IP
McClung	160	4.35	16.18	125.84	79.1	4.55	-2.57	1.07	-0.25	0.1
Replacement SP	45.33	5.5	-	-	-	5.5	-5.49	-5.49	-0.52	-0.52
Replacement RP	297.67	5	-	-	-	5	-19.51	-19.51	-1.86	-1.86
TOTALS	1458	-	-	-	-	-	-31.42	-12.74	-2.99	-1.21
+FREE AGENT SIGNINGS											$ (millions)	M$/FIPWAR
Swindle (Projections from CAIRO)	49	2.79	4	45	8	3.02	7.57	8.82	0.72	0.84	0.4	.147
Replacement SP	45.33	5.5	-	-	-	5.5	-5.49	-5.49	-0.52	-0.52
Replacement RP	248.67	5	-	-	-	5	-16.3	-16.3	-1.55	-0.15
TOTALS	1458	-	-	-	-	-	-20.63	-0.72	-1.97	1.34	0.4	0.147

Well, this doesn't look very good for Brewers fans. Using the pure mIP numbers from the Marcel's, the Brewers staff looks about 6.2 wins below average using FIP numbers (which I prefer, because I already ran fielding projections, and because FIP is more talent-based) and 4.5 below average using ERA. However, let's be optimistic and assume we can get starter-type innings out of Capuano, McClung, and Gallardo. With a minimal assumption of 160 innings for each of those pitchers, we're looking a little better, at -3 wins and -1 wins for FIP and ERA respectively.

Clearly, Melvin needs to go out there and get pitching, both in the bullpen and in the rotation. Anything to get experienced, non-replacement innings will greatly help this team. If the offense performs up to par, another 5 wins out of the pitching (which comes out to about 25 million on the free agent market, less than that if you can find bargains) would put this team at +7.5 WAA, or an 89 win team. If the team is willing to spend 40 or 50 million, we could be looking at a +12.5 WAA, or 93+ win team.

With the team we have right now, I'm not optimistic. But if the front office can find a few diamonds in the rough in the FA pool and minor leagues, as well as make a splash in the big name free agent market, the Brewers could very well be a contender again.