Showing posts with label baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label baseball. Show all posts

Friday, October 24, 2008

Once again, Jim Rome has no idea what he's talking about.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of Jim Rome. He's funny, and occasionally smart, and almost always entertaining. But this time, he's just plain wrong.

Basically, Rome summed up Game 2 of the World Series by saying that the Rays are "built to do it to you with pitching, speed, and defense," and more to the point, that "they don't beat you with the long ball."

Why don't you ask the White Sox and the Red Sox whether or not the Rays beat you with the long ball? Of course, just looking at those 11 playoff games in which the Rays hit 22 home runs (2 HR/g) gives us a ridiculously small sample size. Sure, the Rays 180 team homers isn't quite as great as the 235 put up by the White Sox or even the 214 put up by World Series opponent Phillies,
but it still amounts to 1.125 HR/g and came in 4th in the American League.

No team in major league baseball can sustain winning ways without consistent power production. It simply can't happen. The Angels found that out in a bad way when their ridiculous, unsustainable clutch hitting over the regular season fizzled against the Red Sox. The Rays will not win this series if their bats don't show up and show up soon, because against a team with as much power hitting as the Phillies, they will need to be able to score runs in bunches. If Joe Maddon decides to play "small ball" as sportscasters such as Jim Rome seem to suggest, they will be running themselves into the ground by not giving their power hitters the chances that they need.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Inside the mind of a statistically-inclined baseball aficionado.

I love baseball. I'm never happier than when I'm around a baseball field. I've played organized baseball since I was 5 and probably was introduced to the game much earlier than that. I've never been the most talented player on any team I've played on, but I've never let that deter my interest for the game. I currently play for the University of Wisconsin Club Baseball B team, and I play first base and right field.

I follow Major League Baseball intensely, and I am a big fan of the Milwaukee Brewers, but even when they're not playing, I always find something in the game to hold my interest. I now enjoy playing Fantasy Baseball, as well as watching any MLB game that happens to be on the TV. When I first got into Fantasy Baseball, 5 years ago, I was introduced to such crazy stats as "OPS" and "WHIP." At first, I was skeptical. I first thought that these stats were de-humanizing the game and that the game was random enough and based enough on things like "heart" that those stats couldn't possibly mean any more than your typical stats like batting average, and that the most valuable player was simply the one who hit the most home runs or had the highest batting average.

However, after aging a bit and learning much much more about statistics and mathematics, I've come to understand and love these statistics. If you're a skeptic like I used to be, I have two publications that I heartily recommend. First, check out the following website: www.fangraphs.com - this website has projections for every player and also a very cool scoreboard feature which shows the win probability of each team based on run expectancies and other crazy things. To learn more about that, check out my second suggested reading: The Book. To get a sneak peek before you invest, check out www.insidethebook.com - this book uses intense mathematical and statistical analysis to show what strategies and outcomes are better and simply shows the best way for a GM or manager to optimize his team.

Expect a lot of posts here talking about either my own personal baseball experiences, both as a coach and a player, as well as about the MLB and the MLB media. I can't wait to tear the people offering the MVP award to Ryan Howard a new one.