Bad Processes, Meet Bad Results

WPA Studs and Duds 4/08/2009

STUDS


STARTING PITCHER
Ubaldo Jimenez - COL
7 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 0 ER, 8 SO, W (1-0)
+.496 WPA in the Rockies' 3-0 victory over ARI

RELIEF PITCHERS
Neal Cotts - CHC
1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 SO
+.142 WPA in the Cubs' 3-2 extra-inning loss to HOU
Entered with runners on 1st and 2nd, score 2-2, 9th inning. Retired the side without allowing any hits (+.319 WPA), but then allowed two hits to open up the 10th (-.177 WPA).
Jose Valverde - HOU
1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 SO
Valverde pitched a scoreless 9th to send the game to extras (+.142 WPA).

HITTER
Jim Thome - DH
3-4, 2 R, HR, 3 RBI
+.621 WPA in the White Sox' 4-2 victory over KCR
Thome had a solid day overall, but his WPA was boosted by his go-ahead 3 run HR off Kyle Farnsworth in the 8th inning (+.602 WPA).

DUDS

STARTING PITCHER
Jeff Suppan - MIL
4 IP, 6 H, 1 HR, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO, L (0-1)
-.468 WPA in the Brewers' 10-6 loss to SFG

RELIEF PITCHER
Brandon Lyon - DET
1.0 IP, 3 H, 1 HR, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 SO, BS (1), L (0-1)
-1.122 WPA in the Tigers 5-4 loss to TOR
Lyon blew a 2 run lead in the 8th after serving up a 3 run homer to Aaron Hill (-.715 WPA) and then couldn't hold a tie in the 9th after the Tigers tied it up (-.375 WPA).

HITTER
Carlos Quentin - CHW
0-4, 1 SO
-.256 WPA in the White Sox' 4-2 victory to SEA

WPA Studs and Duds 4/07/2009

STUDS


STARTING PITCHER
Joe Saunders - LAA
6.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 SO
+.361 WPA in the Angels' 3-0 victory over OAK

RELIEF PITCHER
Dennis Sarfate - BAL
1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 SO
+.301 WPA in the Orioles' 10-5 victory over NYY
Entered with runners on 1st and 2nd, score 6-5 BAL. pLI = 3.17

HITTER
Jack Wilson - SS, PIT
1-5, 2B, 3 RBI
+.560 WPA in the Pirates' 6-4 victory over STL
Hit go-ahead bases-loaded double with score 4-3 STL in top 9th.

DUDS

STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Cook - COL
2.1 IP, 7 H, 2 HR, 6 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO
-.517 WPA in the Rockies' 9-8 loss to ARI

RELIEF PITCHER
Jason Motte - STL
1.0 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 SO
Blown Save, allowed Jack Wilson's GW 3-RBI 2B in 9th inning of the Cardinals' 6-4 loss to PIT

HITTER
Justin Morneau - 1B, MIN
0-4, 1 SO, 1 GIDP
-.287 WPA in the Twins' 6-1 loss to SEA
GIDP with 1 out, bases loaded, down 2-1 in 5th (-.221 WPA).

Updating projection tables as free agents get signed.

Like the message says, I'll be updating the projection tables as free agents are signed.

This will also give us a good idea of projected dollars/win, which could be interesting as the offseason goes on.

UPDATE: 11/27/08
The Swindle signing moves the Brewers pitching to -1.97 WAA.
Bourgeois doesn't appear to be a player who will receive a roster spot (he's right around replacement level anyway) so he won't be put on my list unless he does make the roster.

CURRENT PROJECTION: Pitchers -1.97|Position Players +5.63|Total +3.66|ExpW-L 84.66 - 77.33

Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/11/25/670594/brewers-sign-r-j-swindle

Says everything I would say about this and more.

And better.

Pitching Projections

Here's part two of last week's post on projections.

This uses the 2009 Marcel's to project Brewers pitching, once again using only players the Brewers have currently locked down. It's possible that I may have missed somebody that would likely make the roster if the season started today, so please point that out if I missed it.

Notes: I required 1458 (162 g * 9 IP/g) as the total number of IP required overall.
I required 863.67 IP by starters (~5.33 IP/g) and 594.33 IP by relievers (~3.67 IP/g).

FIP = (13*HR + 3*BB - 2*K)/IP + 3.33 (difference between avg NL FIP and avg NL ERA)

Again, 10.5 R/Win.

AVG ERA = AVG FIP = 4.41

Starters = Gallardo, Capuano, McClung, Suppan, Bush
Relievers = Others

And without further ado, the numbers.

nameLast	IP	ERA	HR	K	BB	FIP	FIPRAA	ERARAA	FIPWAA	ERAWAA
Gallardo	79	3.65	7	70	28	3.77	5.59	6.67	0.53	0.64
Capuano	72	4.5	9	60	24	4.29	0.97	-0.72	0.09	-0.07
Stetter	38	4.03	4	33	18	4.38	0.12	1.6	0.01	0.15
Villanueva	96	4.03	13	82	34	4.44	-0.37	4.05	-0.04	0.39
Bush	169	4.31	23	118	45	4.5	-1.72	1.88	-0.16	0.18
McClung	89	4.35	9	70	44	4.55	-1.43	0.59	-0.14	0.06
DiFelice	35	4.37	5	28	12	4.62	-0.8	0.16	-0.08	0.02
Dillard	32	4.22	4	23	12	4.64	-0.83	0.68	-0.08	0.06
Coffey	43	4.81	6	33	16	4.73	-1.51	-1.91	-0.14	-0.18
Riske	53	4.25	7	39	23	4.88	-2.75	0.94	-0.26	0.09
Suppan	169	4.85	21	98	63	4.9	-9.28	-8.26	-0.88	-0.79
Replacement SP	285.33	5.5	-	-	-	5.5	-34.56	-34.56	-3.29	-3.29
Replacement RP	297.67	5	-	-	-	5	-19.51	-19.51	-1.86	-1.86
TOTALS	1458	-	-	-	-	-	-66.07	-48.39	-6.29	-4.61
Gallardo/Capuano 160 IP each	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Gallardo	160	3.65	14.18	141.77	56.71	3.77	11.32	13.51	1.08	1.29
Capuano	160	4.5	18.23	121.52	48.61	4.29	1.97	-1.46	0.19	-0.14
Replacement SP	116.33	5.5				5.5	-14.09	-14.09	-1.34	-1.34
Replacement RP	297.67	5	-	-	-	5	-19.51	-19.51	-1.86	-1.86
TOTALS	1458	-	-	-	-	-	-38.87	-21.82	-3.7	-2.08
+McClung 160 IP
McClung	160	4.35	16.18	125.84	79.1	4.55	-2.57	1.07	-0.25	0.1
Replacement SP	45.33	5.5	-	-	-	5.5	-5.49	-5.49	-0.52	-0.52
Replacement RP	297.67	5	-	-	-	5	-19.51	-19.51	-1.86	-1.86
TOTALS	1458	-	-	-	-	-	-31.42	-12.74	-2.99	-1.21
+FREE AGENT SIGNINGS											$ (millions)	M$/FIPWAR
Swindle (Projections from CAIRO)	49	2.79	4	45	8	3.02	7.57	8.82	0.72	0.84	0.4	.147
Replacement SP	45.33	5.5	-	-	-	5.5	-5.49	-5.49	-0.52	-0.52
Replacement RP	248.67	5	-	-	-	5	-16.3	-16.3	-1.55	-0.15
TOTALS	1458	-	-	-	-	-	-20.63	-0.72	-1.97	1.34	0.4	0.147

Well, this doesn't look very good for Brewers fans. Using the pure mIP numbers from the Marcel's, the Brewers staff looks about 6.2 wins below average using FIP numbers (which I prefer, because I already ran fielding projections, and because FIP is more talent-based) and 4.5 below average using ERA. However, let's be optimistic and assume we can get starter-type innings out of Capuano, McClung, and Gallardo. With a minimal assumption of 160 innings for each of those pitchers, we're looking a little better, at -3 wins and -1 wins for FIP and ERA respectively.

Clearly, Melvin needs to go out there and get pitching, both in the bullpen and in the rotation. Anything to get experienced, non-replacement innings will greatly help this team. If the offense performs up to par, another 5 wins out of the pitching (which comes out to about 25 million on the free agent market, less than that if you can find bargains) would put this team at +7.5 WAA, or an 89 win team. If the team is willing to spend 40 or 50 million, we could be looking at a +12.5 WAA, or 93+ win team.

With the team we have right now, I'm not optimistic. But if the front office can find a few diamonds in the rough in the FA pool and minor leagues, as well as make a splash in the big name free agent market, the Brewers could very well be a contender again.

A Bare Bones Projection Of Brewers Hitters In 2009

The 2009 Marcel's are out, and I coupled them with Sean Smith's 2009 defensive projections to make a bare bones projection of Brewers hitters for the 09 season.

This assumes no signings of anybody at all, so obviously this is only to be seen as a starting point, and also to see where the Brewers holes are.

Important notes: I required each position to receive 700 plate appearances between all players and replacements.

Thus, 700/162 = 4.33 = PA/G, which is how I found expected games.

Rel = Reliability, which is based on the number of plate appearances Marcel had to work with. That's why it's low for players like Gamel and Gwynn and high for players like Cameron and Hart.

xG = Expected games.

The m before some columns represents the fact that they're from the Marcel projections.

Obviously this isn't perfect but like I said, this is a very simple projection.

EDIT: I had a formatting error in my spreadsheet, which rounded down all the wOBA values, which lowered both each player's wOBA AND the average wOBA. This results in a slightly lower WAA, but not a whole lot of difference overall.

PLAYER	POS	REL.	mPA	wOBA	RAA	WAA	WAR	xG	G/POS	DefRAA	PosAdj	DefWAA	TotalWAA
Gwynn, Tony	OF	0.46	238	0.306	-4.14	-0.39	0.24	55.09	39 CF 13 RF	-2.95	0.8	-0.2	-0.6
Gamel, Mat	3B	0.01	201	0.344	3.15	0.3	0.84	46.53	46 3B	0	0	0	0.3
Nelson ,Brad	1B	0.03	204	0.338	2.13	0.2	0.75	47.22	20 1B 27 PH	0	-2.22	-0.21	-0.01
Rivera ,Mike	C	0.42	236	0.329	0.62	0.06	0.69	54.63	36 C 18 PH	0	1.67	0.16	0.22
Hall, Bill	3B	0.84	474	0.325	-0.41	-0.04	1.22	109.72	110 3B	-0.68	0	-0.06	-0.1
Cameron, Mike	CF	0.85	519	0.333	3.16	0.3	1.68	120.14	120 CF	2.24	3.46	0.54	0.84
Weeks, Rickie	2B	0.83	531	0.343	7.85	0.75	2.16	122.92	122 2B	-6.84	0	-0.65	0.1
Kendall, Jason	C	0.85	545	0.295	-14.69	-1.4	0.05	126.16	126 C	10	7.25	1.64	0.24
Hardy, J.J.	SS	0.84	578	0.344	9.05	0.86	2.4	133.8	134 SS	0.83	3.86	0.45	1.31
Fielder, Prince	1B	0.87	615	0.382	29.95	2.85	4.49	142.36	142 1B	-7.09	-8.21	-1.46	1.39
Braun, Ryan	LF	0.81	581	0.384	29.3	2.79	4.34	134.49	134 LF	1.67	-3.86	-0.21	2.58
Hart, Corey	RF	0.84	585	0.345	9.67	0.92	2.48	135.42	135 RF	1.68	-3.89	-0.21	0.71
Replacement	C	-	0	-	-	0	0	-	0 C	0	0	0	0
Replacement	1B	-	0	-	-	0	0	-	0 C	0	0	0	0
Replacement	2B	-	169	-	-	-0.45	0	-	40 2B	0	0	0	-0.45
Replacement	3B	-	25	-	-	-0.07	0	-	6 3B	0	0	0	-0.07
Replacement	SS	-	122	-	-	-0.33	0	-	28 SS	0	0.86	0.08	-0.24
Replacement	LF	-	119	-	-	-0.32	0	-	28 LF	0	-0.86	-0.08	-0.4
Replacement	CF	-	0	-	-	0	0	-	0 CF	0	0	0	0
Replacement	RF	-	58	-	-	-0.15	0	-	14 RF	0	-0.43	-0.04	-0.2
Totals	-	-	-	-	-	5.89	21.35	-	162 ALL	-1.14	-1.57	-0.26	5.63
												'

No giant surprises here. The Brewer position players project as between 5 and 6 wins above average, with this being a conservative estimate due to Marcel's conservative estimates of playing time. The Brewer offense is basically back in full force, although clearly a backup outfielder or 2 would be useful over the off-season (Gwynn really doesn't seem to be worth much outside of a pinch-runner, as his outfield defense is far below average in center and average in the corners). Pitching projections will come in the next few days, and that's where it should get interesting.